2024 bonus expectations, bank by bank
Our bonus expectations report this year, with over 1,700 responses, shows that bankers are expecting huge bonus increases after a bumper 2024. But it's definitely worth asking: which bankers are expecting the biggest increases?
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This year, as it turns out, everyone. Expectations are wild and improbable. Citi's people are the most optimistic, expecting a whopping 73% increase compared to last year. This follows a period of restructuring for Citi - the bank is cutting 20,000 jobs and although 10,000 or so were removed so far this year, there are just as many cuts left to make again. People at Citi are clearly very hopeful after bonuses were reduced by an average of 10% between 2022 and 2023, according to our previous survey.
The least optimistic bankers this year are at BNP Paribas. This follows a difficult year for the French bank’s fixed income trading team, where revenues not only fell by 9.6% in the first nine months of 2024 compared to 2023 – more than all of its similarly-sized rivals – but also due to a number of senior departures its FICC teams, such as global co-head of global macro and credit trading Francisco Oliveira. Last year, our respondents at BNP expected bonuses to rise by 10% but were disappointed by an average decline of nearly 8%. This year, they have seemingly tempered their expectations, but expect bonuses to rise nonetheless.
Barclays is also cutting costs, but people there are more ebullient, expecting an 47% increase. One London-based equities VP at the firm admitted that while it won’t quite be a “vintage year,” he expects that it “should be better than last year,” which he said was “awful.”
JPMorgan’s respondents look only moderately optimistic compared to those elsewhere. This is surprising compared to the bank’s consistent strong performance, but also reflects JPMorgan’s stability and realism – the bank doesn’t shoot the lights out during the good time and doesn’t slash bonuses during the bad times. It’s a steady, good payer.
The 2024 eFinancialCareers bonus expectations report can be downloaded here.
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